“The negative outlook reflects the potential for a downgrade if economic and social problems feed into the political debate in the run-up to the 2014 national and provincial elections and consequently further put pressure on the policy framework,” S&P said today.

It noted the moderate fiscal and external debt, which has given the country fiscal flexibility and helped South Africa weather the recent global downturn.

“However, fundamental structural economic and social problems, such as low per capita growth estimated at 2.1% in 2012 and very high unemployment rates, persist, and South Africa’s structural current account deficit makes the economy dependent on external financing,” it said.

Official statistics put unemployment at 23.9%. Last year the economy grew 3.1%, against 2.9% in 2010.

“We could lower the ratings if South Africa’s economic disparities and social development needs persist, with the economy increasingly failing to generate the jobs required by an expanding labour force,” it said.